Still No Major Moves (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple Price Analysis)


From yesterday’s low at $215,9B the evaluation of the cryptocurrency market cap increased to around $219,184B today, but has pulled back slightly since.

  • Market Cap: $218,240,721,586
  • 24h Vol: $10,745,437,943
  • BTC Dominance: 52.3%

As you can see from the global chart after the first downtrend resistance was broken the evaluation went in an upward trajectory but failed to come up to the resistance level of around $220B, forming another downtrend.

Zooming out on to the global chart you can see that this current downtrend is starting to form as the evaluation interacted with the triangle’s resistance line and was rejected by it. The triangle in which the evaluation has been bouncing from the beginning of September still hasn’t been broken out off, so now after the interaction with the resistance, I would be expecting an interaction with the support around $208B.

The major moves that were expected to be over the weekend would happen as a result of a breakout momentum from the current triangle. From what the evaluation on the global chart looks like a breakout from the upside looks more likely because the support line looks steeper, meaning buyers are more aggressive at this point, putting the pressure on the triangle’s resistance line.

Looking at the Bitcoin’s dominance chart I have spotted something interesting. As you can remember I have stated many times that Bitcoin’s dominance should be viewed as an inverse indicator of the market confidence- the higher its percentage the less the confidence, and the probability of a further market decline is higher if this chart shows an uptrend. Why is this so? Because Bitcoin is viewed as a store of value. If market participants are going to liquidate their positions, they are first going to sell their altcoins for BTC and if the bearish market sentiment overrules they will sell Bitcoin for fiat or a stablecoin.

Now onto the chart. I have spotted a classical Elliott Wave count with the last down move from the beginning of March 2017 to mid-January being a corrective three wave ABC (in this period the evaluation of the cryptocurrency market cap went from around $6 billion dollars to around $500 billion dollars) after which a 5 wave trend continuation occurred.  The current trending structure is a wave 4 after which another increase is to be expected. The count of the 4th wave is valid unless the evaluation wents below the 45% mark which is the ending point of wave 1. As a breakout from the triangle on the global chart is expected to be from the upside, for now, the evaluation of the Bitcoin’s dominance could go down to the 45% mark before another increase to around 68%.

Zooming into the BTC dominance chart I think that the 4th wave hasn’t ended and that another low is likely because the three wave move hasn’t developed yet and has one more move to the downside.

This would mean that in the upcoming period I am expecting a small increase in the cryptocurrency market capitalization before a further decline.

There aren’t any significant headlines or news stories that are impacting the market at the moment.

Bitcoin Price BTC/USD

Looking at the 4-hour chart, you can see that the price action went around my expected breakout zone, in which if the price entered I said a breakout from the downside from the symmetrical triangle is to be expected. But now the price action has created a cluster around the symmetrical triangles resistance line and has interacted with the descending triangle’s resistance line indicating buying pressure.

Zooming into the hourly chart we can see that the price is on the exact same levels as on yesterday’s open but is now above the symmetrical triangles resistance line and above the horizontal support level at $6516.

The next resistance that is strong enough to hold the price back is the descending triangle’s resistance line, so we will just have to wait and see what happens there.

Market sentiment  

Bitcoin’s hourly chart technical indicators are signaling a buy with moving averages signaling a strong one.

Pivot points 

S3 5953.4
S2 6270.2
S1 6432.7
P 6587.1
R1 6749.6
R2 6903.9
R3 7220.8

Ethereum Price ETH/USD

Looking at the Ethereum 4 hour chart you can see my Elliott Wave count labelings. Ultimately I am expecting new lows for the price of Ethereum to around $153 or maybe even lower.

The last corrective count from the minor WXY in the opposite direction (orange) is so far labeled as a WXY meaning that the correction might have ended. The correction could get extended by two more waves (X and Z) which would mean that the current symmetrical triangle is a corrective X wave which would lead the price further down to my target levels as the wave Z should start. If not the correction ended on the minor Y wave and this current triangle is only a consolidation before the uptrend starts.

Zooming into the hourly chart we can further inspect the triangle. As you can see the price has been stopped out again at the middle range resistance line and is likely heading down from here as this chart pattern is know as a bearing pennant.

Market sentiment 

Hourly chart technical indicators are signaling a buy.

Pivot points 

S3 175.34
S2 200.80
S1 213.05
P 226.26
R1 238.51
R2 251.72
R3 277.18

Ripple Price XRP/USD

From today’s high at $0.493 the price of Ripple has fallen by 2% today.

Looking at the hourly chart you can see that the price is interacting with the minor downtrends resistance line which was formed from the end of September. I am expecting that the price of Ripple goes below the $0.43 level which is where the C wave of the first correction is. As the correction in the opposite direction occurred another correction to the downside has developed and I expect it to go past the ending of the first correction which is why I am expecting a lower price target what the $0.43.

The correction may ended on the Y wave and the upward move that we have seen is not another corrective wave X but rather the start of an impulsive move to the upside.

Market sentiment 

Hourly chart technical indicators are signaling a buy.

Pivot points 

S3 0.21897 
S2 0.37334 
S1 0.43108
P 0.52771 
R1 0.58545
R2 0.68208 
R3 0.83645

Conclusion

It is still uncertain whether the market will go upward or downward in the upcoming period so I wouldn’t recommend any trading. The global chart is showing the sign of a potential short-term recovery and the charts of the analyzed cryptocurrencies are bullish in sentiment. Ultimately I am expecting new lows for the prices and the crypto market as a whole so this upward movement I consider to be only a short-term recovery.



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